Elk Grove - Galt CERT

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West
A storm in the Pacific Northwest will bring more heavy precipitation today as it moves across the Cascades into the northern Rockies, leading to a continued high risk of river flooding for western Washington State. Look for the system to produce rain and higher elevation snow, heavy at times, over portions of the North & Central Rockies. Parts of the Cascades, Bitterroots and mountainous regions of Wyoming could see at least 12 inches of snow by this evening. Elsewhere will be sunny and hot, with highs ranging between 60-85 degrees in the lower elevations of California and the Desert Southwest.
Midwest
Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average for the central portion of the country today, with rain showers stretching across much of the Central Plains & Middle Mississippi Valley then turning to ice & snow farther north into the Upper Mississippi Valley & Great Lakes. Highs will range from the 30s in the Northern Plains up to the mid 70s in portions of the Central & Southern Plains.
South
Expect precipitation in much of the Southeastern U.S. with showers & thunderstorms developing from the Tennessee Valley across the Southern Appalachians into the Carolina coasts today through tomorrow morning. There is a slight risk of significant severe thunderstorms across parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this evening and possibly continuing into Friday along the southern Atlantic coast.
Northeast
Another system moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast will produce snow from the mountains of New York to central/northern Maine today into tomorrow. Elsewhere, the Mid-Atlantic should be warm and pleasant with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average and a chance of showers beginning later in the evening.

Western Washington River Flooding:

At 8:00 p.m. EST on February 21, 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Seattle District Commander, declared a USACE emergency in response to the ongoing western Washington river flooding event. The Snohomish River in western Washington State is forecasted to reach major damage stage tonight, February 22. The Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reports that the Union Slough Levee located along the Snohomish River at the City of Everett, WA is at risk of breaching from high flows anticipated from the Snohomish River. 

The levee has received significant riverward scour damage and significant loss of levee embankment material. Scour is now well into the prism of the levee in two locations affecting levee stability and reliability. The levee was damaged in the 2009 flood and received additional damage in 2011 flooding. USACE believes that it is unlikely that the Union Slough Levee will survive another significant flood event without repair. Residences, agricultural land and commercial structures (i.e. large lumber mill) and the City of Everett’s wastewater treatment plant are found within the inundation area. Power transmission lines and an oil pipeline as well as Interstate 5, State Highway 539 and the BNSF RR also cross the protected region.

Snohomish County has requested assistance with temporary measures to protect business and residential structures from flooding. The USACE Seattle District Commander declared a [USACE] emergency in response to this event, and activated the USACE Seattle District EOC to Activation Level III (monitoring) on February 21, 2012 and will be operating at extended hours. Today, February 22, the Seattle District Office will deploy Snohomish Flood Team members to assist the Snohomish County Diking District #5 and community of Everett, WA. The Washington State EOC is not activated and has not requested FEMA assistance.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Southeastern Missouri
On Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 4:58 a.m. EST, a magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred approximately 9 miles east-southeast of Sikeston, MO, and 16 miles southwest of Cairo, IL, at a depth of 3.1 miles. Media reported minor damage, including falling items from shelves, broken windows, minor cracks in walls and sidewalks, but there were no reports of injuries. The earthquake was reportedly felt in Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, and as far away as North Carolina and Tennessee. The Region VII Regional Recovery Coordination Center and the Missouri State Emergency Operations Center were not activated; there has been no request for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

New Madrid Seismic Zone
This earthquake occurred along the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), a 150-mile stretch between Memphis and St. Louis that crosses parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee. According to information from the last 40 years of instrumental recordings, the NMSZ is the most seismically active area of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. It experiences an average of 200 earthquakes (greater than M1.5) every year—most too small to be felt, however. Even a magnitude 4.0 quake is rare, occurring in the NMSZ on average about once a year. Yesterday's quake comes nearly 200 years to the day after a powerful earthquake in nearly the same spot that heavily damaged New Madrid, MO and St. Louis, MO. The third, and probably most widely felt of the three New Madrid earthquakes, which seismologists today guess was about 7.7 in magnitude, occurred on February 7, 1812. It was so powerful it reportedly cracked sidewalks in Washington, D.C., and caused church bells to ring as far away as Boston and Toronto.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West
A strong and very moist storm system will develop over western Washington today bringing heavy rain, upper elevation snow and strong winds to the Pacific Northwest. Parts of the Cascades, Bitterroots, and mountainous regions of Wyoming may see up to 12 inches of snow by tomorrow evening. Elsewhere, the region will be mild and sunny, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations of California and the Desert Southwest.
Midwest
Light to moderate snow can be expected today in the Upper Midwest from northern Minnesota across Wisconsin. Up to 4-6 inches of snow will be possible from northeastern Iowa through north-central Minnesota, with heavier amounts closer to the Canadian border. Elsewhere, expect light showers and possible thunderstorms to move across portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
South
Tuesday should be mainly dry, with light showers possible in parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Look for temperatures to remain slightly above average, with highs in the 60s and 70s in the Southeastern U.S., and in the 50s from Arkansas to the southern Appalachians & northern North Carolina.
Northeast
Some light precipitation is expected today, with a chance of showers in upstate New York, and portions of Pennsylvania & West Virginia. Elsewhere will be mainly dry from New England down through the eastern Mid-Atlantic, with temperatures from near average to 15 degrees above average.

Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Power Restoration:

Power restoration continues for a winter storm that occurred Sunday February 19, 2012 and stretched from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky across to North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. The storm brought heavy, wet snow that resulted in numerous power outages across several states. As of 5:15 a.m. EST, Kentucky Power was reporting 16,742 customers still without power, with restoration expected by Friday, February 24. Appalachian Power, servicing most of the affected areas in Virginia and West Virginia, was reporting more than 20,839 customers without power and expects to have power restored to 90% of their customers by midnight Friday. Appalachian Power has approximately 740 contract line workers, 500 tree trimmers and 80 damage assessors assisting their employees with service restoration. Meanwhile, Dominion Virginia Electric reports that power has been restored to all customers. There continue to be no reports of shelters opening due to the power outages. None of the State Emergency Operation Centers have activated; there have been no requests for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

Severe Thunderstorms—Kansas & Oklahoma:

A Severe Storm system brought rain, hail and straight-line winds with gusts over 60 mph to portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas on Monday evening, February 20, 2012. Minor damages were reported to some homes, mobile homes and businesses—primarily in the Oklahoma City area—however, no major damage was reported. Media reported one storm-related fatality (unconfirmed) near Ada, Oklahoma in southeastern Oklahoma. Power restoration is nearly complete, and as of 5:15 a.m. EST, Entergy Power (Arkansas) was reporting just over 400 customers without power, while Weststar Energy (Kansas) reports that power has been restored to nearly all customers. None of the State Emergency Operation Centers are activated; there has been no request for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

Western Washington River Flooding:

The combination of heavy precipitation and mild temperatures continuing through tomorrow morning in the coast and mountains of Washington State could lead to possible flooding in some of its western rivers, and a flood watch remains in effect this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for western portions of the state. Total rainfall will likely be 4 to 7 inches over the Cascades for the 36-hour period spanning from yesterday morning through tomorrow evening (PST), however, as is often the case during heavy rain events, some areas of even greater amounts are likely. The rivers of greatest risk of major flooding are those flowing out of eastern King and Snohomish counties off the Cascades’ western slopes. These include—but are not limited to—the Stillaguamish, the Skykomish, the Tolt, the Snohomish, and the Snoqualmie Rivers. Model uncertainty is great enough that all rivers in western Washington have some risk of flooding, and a flood watch has been issued for all main stem rivers, including those on the Olympic Peninsula and the entire Chehalis Basin.

Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Space Weather Center to Add World’s First "Ensemble Forecasting" Capability:

Improved Forecasting to Coincide with Peak in Solar Activity
After years of relative quiet, the sun is beginning to stir. By the time it's fully awake in about 20 months, the team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., charged with researching and tracking solar activity, will have at their disposal a greatly enhanced forecasting capability. Goddard's Space Weather Laboratory recently received support under NASA's Space Technology Program Game Changing Program to implement "ensemble forecasting," a computer technique already used by meteorologists to track potential paths and impacts of hurricanes and other severe weather events. Instead of analyzing one set of solar-storm conditions, as is the case now, Goddard forecasters will be able to simultaneously produce as many as 100 computerized forecasts by calculating multiple possible conditions. Just as important, they will be able to do this quickly and use the information to provide alerts of space weather storms that could potentially be harmful to astronauts and NASA spacecraft.

Sun Growing Restless
Since the sun reached its solar minimum in 2008—the period when the number of sunspots is lowest—it has begun to awaken from its slumber and is now entering a solar maximum as part of its 11-year cycle, which is expected to peak in 2013. During this time, more powerful Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), often associated with M- and X-class flare events, become more numerous and can affect any planet or spacecraft in its path. In the past, solar storms have disrupted power grids on Earth and damaged instrumentation on satellites. They can also be harmful to astronauts if they are not warned to take protective cover. With this in mind, NASA recognized the importance of accurately predicting future solar storm conditions.

Weaknesses in Current System
Currently, the laboratory is running one CME model, meaning it is calculating one set of parameters at a time. The parameters are derived from near real-time data gathered by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, among others. However, imperfections currently exist in the data—imperfections which grow over time, leading to forecasts that don't agree with the evolution of actual conditions. Ensemble forecasting, however, overcomes the weaknesses in the data by allowing forecasters to tweak the conditions. In essence, the multiple forecasts provide information on the different ways the CME can evolve over the next few hours, ultimately improving forecasting techniques. Once this forecasting technique is verified and validated by NASA's Space Weather Laboratory, the capability will be made available to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, which is responsible for issuing national space weather alerts. NASA's goal to understand and track space weather activity will enable a greatly enhanced forecasting capability for U.S. interests.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Friday, February 17, 2012 (For period 10–17 February, 2012):
National Preparedness Level: 1, Initial Attack Activity: Light (568 new fires)
New Large Fires: 3, Large Fires Contained: 2, Uncontained Large Fires: 1, Type 1 IMT Committed: 0, Type 2 IMT Committed: 0, State Affected: FL & AZ

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

 West:
A Pacific storm will bring rain along the West Coast from Northern California to Washington. The Cascades could pick up as much as 4 inches of snow by tomorrow night.  A low pressure system over northwest Mexico will bring lower elevation rain and mountain snow to the southern Rockies. Rain and snow showers will fall over southeastern Arizona and across much of New Mexico where 2 to 12 inches of snowfall is possible for the higher elevations.

Midwest:
Under a ridge of high pressure, skies will be clear to partly cloudy around much of the region with temperatures some 5 to 15 degrees above average.  Precipitation will be limited to snow across the northern Great Lakes.

South:
A frontal system in the northern Gulf of Mexico will produce showers and thunderstorms across northern Texas and the Gulf Coast. Rainfall of up to 1 inch is possible with locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms in South Texas could become severe.  The precipitation will move northward into Oklahoma and the Central Plains this afternoon. High pressure will mean generally dry and mild conditions across the Southeast.

Northeast:
With high pressure ridging in behind yesterday’s frontal system, the Mid-Atlantic will be generally dry and mild.  Eastern New England will have a few showers this morning. Snow will persist across northern New England with up to 3 inches of new snow possible in northern Maine.  Upstate New York will have lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario.
A low is forecast to develop tomorrow in the Lower Mississippi Valley and track eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. The type and amount of precipitation will depend on the exact trajectory of the low. This system is currently forecast to produce 1to 4 inches of wet snow from the Appalachians to as far north as New York City.  Areas to the south and east will have rain.

Space Weather:

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Oregon Request
The Governor of Oregon has requested a major disaster declaration due to serve storms, flooding, and landslides that occurred Jan. 17-21, 2012. The Governor is requesting five counties for Individual Assistance, twelve counties for Public Assistance, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.